What the forecasters of Claros believe is coming.
Resolves YES if Japan's Ministry of Defense or two major outlets confirm a North Korean ballistic missile landing in Japan's EEZ before Dec 31, 2026.
Resolves YES if Reuters, AP, or OpenAI's official blog confirm public availability of GPT-5 before Sept 30, 2026.
Resolves YES if Apple's official WWDC 2027 keynote includes an announcement of a fully on-device large language model.
Resolves YES if any of OpenAI, Google, Anthropic, Meta or Mistral officially announce withdrawal of a model from the EU due to GPAI compliance, confirmed by Reuters or AP.
Resolves YES if a credible financial outlet (Bloomberg, WSJ, FT) reports a closed funding round with a post-money valuation above $100B before Dec 31, 2026.
Resolves YES if a peer-reviewed paper with DeepMind authorship explicitly claims AGI-level or human-level performance across a standardized multi-domain benchmark, published before Jan 1, 2028.
Resolves YES if a federal AI bill with mandatory compliance clauses is signed into law before Jan 1, 2027, confirmed by Congress.gov or AP.
Resolves YES if TSMC officially announces volume production of 1nm process node chips before Dec 31, 2027, confirmed by company press release or Reuters.
Resolves YES if any of the named labs publish an official post-mortem or safety incident report, or if one is confirmed by two independent major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, Reuters) before Dec 31, 2026.
Resolves YES if a signed ceasefire document between Russia and Ukraine is confirmed by Reuters or AP before Jan 1, 2027. Informal pauses do not count.
Resolves YES if official Chinese military sources or two independent outlets (Reuters, AP, NYT) confirm live-fire PLA exercises within 50km of Taiwan's coastline before Dec 31, 2026.
Resolves YES if the UN Security Council passes a new resolution imposing sanctions specifically targeting Iran's nuclear program before Dec 31, 2026, confirmed by UN.org or Reuters.
Resolves YES if any G7 nation (US, UK, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan) makes a formal diplomatic recognition of Palestinian statehood before Dec 31, 2026, confirmed by an official government statement.
Resolves YES if an official US executive order or Federal Register notice imposes tariffs exceeding 25% on a broad category of European goods before Jan 1, 2027.
Resolves YES if Netanyahu is confirmed as sitting Prime Minister of Israel on Jan 1, 2027, per Israeli government official sources or Reuters (auto-checked against Wikidata).
Resolved by review based on official OpenAI announcements.
Resolved by review.
Resolved by review of official Apple events.
Resolved by review.
Resolved by review of official launch outcomes.
Resolved by review of official release dates.
Resolved by review.
Resolved by review.
Resolved by review of official qualification results.
Resolved by review of funding announcements.