PoliticsOpen
Will China conduct live-fire military exercises within 50km of Taiwan before end of 2026?
45%
Resolves YES if official Chinese military sources or two independent outlets (Reuters, AP, NYT) confirm live-fire PLA exercises within 50km of Taiwan's coastline before Dec 31, 2026.
- Forecast probability
- 45%
- Closes
- Dec 31, 2026
- Resolves by
- Dec 31, 2026
- Created
- last month